Research & Publications

My research agenda investigates how leaders affect the conduct of international security. Broadly speaking, my work considers the conditions under which these individuals substantively impact the escalation, onset, and duration of international conflict as well as how the characteristics of these individuals impact their states' national security and foreign policies. I have multiple ongoing research programs that, while distinct, are connected through their examination of the role of individuals in international relations and the use of coercion in their foreign policy. Currently, my primary research project is my book manuscript. 

Book Manuscript: 

Leaders, Perceptions, and Reputations for Resolve

In my book manuscript, I investigate the process by which individual leaders establish reputations for resolve. I theorize that leadership transitions create conditions that substantively impact how leader-specific reputations form and change across interactions. My theory predicts that both the statements and behavior of leaders are critical to establishing these reputation, but that there are also conditions under which different reputational cues will be more or less influential to these reputations. More specifically, reputational cues that emerge from early interactions will be particularly influential to the formation of  perceptions of resolve. I further consider how these leader-specific reputations are constrained by the characteristics of a leader's state and the context in which leaders interact with each other. To test my theory against alternative explanations, I employ two distinct survey experiments as well as historical case studies of Soviet-American foreign policy using process tracing methods. My findings show that the processes by which leaders establish their reputations for resolve are more complicated than one would initially assume as certain types of reputations are stickier than others and specific signals of resolve vary in their influence over time. Most notably, early interactions are highly influential to reputation development. In this regard, early statements of resolve create expectations of future action. Leaders who fail to meet these expectations face harsh reputational consequences. Furthermore, inconsistency in one's statements of resolve can damage a leader's reputation and lead adversaries to believe you are indecisive and unwilling to commit the resources necessary to see through a course of action. As a whole, my book illuminates how a leader's statements and behavior contribute to these reputations as well as how these reputations change across interactions to influence the strategies leaders pursue during diplomatic interactions and crisis bargaining. 

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles: 

Jonathan N. Brown, Danielle L. Lupton, and Alex Farrington. "Embedded Deception: Interpersonal Trust, Cooperative Expectations, and the Sharing of Fabricated Intelligence," Journal of Global Security Studies (forthcoming).

Danielle L. Lupton. 2018. "Reexamining Reputation for Resolve: Leaders, States, and the Onset of International Crises," Journal of Global Security Studies 3(2): 198-216.

Danielle L. Lupton. 2018. "Signaling Resolve: Leaders, Reputations, and the Importance of Early Interactions," International Interactions 44(1): 59-87.

Danielle L. Lupton. 2017. "Out of the Service, Into the House: Military Experience and Congressional War Oversight," Political Research Quarterly 70(2): 327-339.

Book Chapters: 

Danielle L. Lupton and Valerie Morkevicius. "The Fog of War: Violence, Coercion, and Jus ad Vim," in Force Short of War in Modern Conflict: Jus Ad Vim, ed. Jai Galliot (Edinburgh University Press). Forthcoming.

Book Reviews:

Danielle L. Lupton. 2017. Review of Frank P. Harvey and John Mitton, Fighting for Credibility U.S. Reputation and International Politics (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2016)H-DIPLO/ISSF Roundtable Review, Vol. X, No. 3 (December 1).

Working Papers: 

I also have multiple articles in differing stages of review, including two single-authored papers. The first single-authored work explores how differences across subject populations can influence experimental results (R&R at Political Analysis). The second builds on my work published in Political Research Quarterly and uses cohort effects and the Vietnam Draft lottery to further test for the influence of military service on U.S. Congressional foreign policy.

My co-authored work builds upon my interest in the role of leaders in international politics as well as how they use the tools of coercion to pursue their foreign policies. Current co-authored working papers consider the impact of leaders on economic growth (with John Doces), the use and ethics of cyberwarfare (with Valerie Morkevicius), and the effect of dynastic relationships on Congressional domestic and foreign policy (with Steven Sprick Schuster and Sahar Parsa, under review).